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Your Holiday Sales Are Your Q1 Forecast.

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Your Holiday Sales Are Your Q1 Forecast.
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In our last brief, we showed how record diesel prices flow into every freight invoice. This time, we're keeping you informed on the other half of the equation: holiday transportation capacity. Our DIZLOGIC team tracks these numbers every week, so DIZPOT customers can plan ahead and keep their packaging moving through the busiest season of the year.

Thanksgiving, Green Wednesday, Christmas, and New Year's promotions are still ahead, and each one is a real opportunity. Here's what holiday capacity looks like right now, and how planning with DIZPOT turns a strong holiday season into a smooth start to Q1.

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Trucking Capacity Is Tight, and Demand Isn't the Reason

According to ACT Research, dry van spot rates excluding fuel were up 47% year over year in July, and contract rates were up 17%. What stands out is the cause. ACT points to a shortage of trucks and drivers, not a surge in freight. Regulatory enforcement and driver availability are holding capacity down, and high equipment, insurance, and labor costs are keeping carriers from adding trucks quickly.

ACT also expects rates to firm again as the market approaches year-end.

Two Numbers Our Logistics Team Is Watching

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  • Tender rejections near 14%. Carriers are turning down about one in seven contracted loads, up from under 6% this time last year (Traffix, FreightWaves SONAR).
  • Transportation capacity index at 40.0. In the Logistics Managers' Index, any reading below 50 means capacity is shrinking.

Freight is still moving, but there's very little slack left in the system.

Every Holiday Is a Capacity Event

Holidays compress the calendar. Drivers take time off, docks and warehouses close early, and carriers prioritize their best-paying loads. Even Labor Day pushed rates and rejections higher this year. Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's add that same short-term squeeze on top of a market that's already tight.

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Those same holidays are also when your product moves fastest. The National Retail Federation reported that U.S. holiday sales passed $1 trillion for the first time last year, and Green Wednesday remains one of the busiest days on the cannabis retail calendar.

Your Holiday Sales Are Your Q1 Forecast

Every jar, bag, and cart that sells through the holidays is packaging you'll need again in January or February. Those reorders will hit the road just as freight comes out of the tightest stretch of the year. Planning now isn't about getting inventory early. It's about making sure a great holiday season doesn't turn into a slow start in Q1.

Three steps before Thanksgiving:

  • Review your holiday movers and forecast Q1 demand. The SKUs you're promoting now are your first Q1 reorders, and we'll help you size them.
  • Set in-hand dates and build your timeline. Your AE and the DIZLOGIC team will work backward through production and freight to find each order's real deadline.
  • Get new projects moving early. Repeat runs move fast, and DIZPOT's creative team can start new artwork now so it's ready when you need it.

How DIZPOT Keeps You Ready

DIZPOT maintains consistent shipping lanes with its vendors, with containers departing roughly every five to seven days. That steady rhythm lets us consolidate orders and keep standard freight options open, even when domestic capacity tightens. Through DIZLOGIC, our logistics team tracks these capacity numbers so you don't have to.

Successful holiday sales create opportunities for growth in Q1. Partner with your DIZPOT Account Executive to review demand forecasts, align production and freight schedules, and position your brand for a strong start to the new year. 

 
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