Most operators treat fourth quarter freight as a fourth quarter problem. It is not. What you pay in November and December is being decided right now, in September, by carrier pricing and vessel schedules that are already filed.
That can sound like a lot of pressure, but it doesn't have to be. DIZPOT has kept customers' packaging arriving on schedule through turbulent shipping seasons before, and we will again this year. Our commitment hasn't changed: keeping you informed, supported, and fully stocked with the packaging you need, right when you need it.
Here's what's moving the market right now, and how to stay ahead of it.
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Ocean carriers price the quarter in advance, through general rate increases filed thirty days out. As of early September:
- The September 1 general rate increase went through on both coasts. CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd, HMM, Yang Ming and ZIM all filed for it on the East Asia to United States lane.
- That was the seventeenth rate increase on that lane in 2026. A normal year sees roughly six.
- Another round was filed for mid September, with carriers signaling more as Golden Week approaches.
- Drewry's World Container Index has Shanghai to Los Angeles above $7,100 per forty foot container, with East Coast rates firmer still.
The freight decisions made this month largely determine what shipping options exist, and at what cost, for the rest of the quarter. There is still flexibility today. There is less of it every week.
Capacity Is Tight, and Volume Is Not Bringing It Down
The common assumption is that when import volume eases, freight gets cheaper and easier to book. This year shows why that does not follow.
- The September 9 Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates forecasts September at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6 percent year over year, which would make this month the busiest of 2026.
- As recently as August, the expectation was the opposite: that the peak had passed in May and volume would step down through year end.
- Carriers have still pulled roughly twenty percent of transpacific capacity through blank sailings.
- Drewry's cancelled sailings data shows about six percent of scheduled sailings across the major east to west trades cancelled from late August into early October, with transpacific eastbound a large share.
Demand did not fade, and available space is being tightened on purpose. That is why a specific service can sell out in a week when congestion is not making headlines.
The China Calendar Closes at the End of This Month
2026 has an unusual version of a constraint that is easy to underestimate.
- Mid-Autumn Festival: September 25 through 27.
- National Day Golden Week: October 1 through 7.
- The two do not merge this year. Only three working days sit between them, September 28 through 30, with adjusted working days on September 20 and October 10.
- Factories, customs offices and banks are largely down until October 8, and the following week clears backlog rather than starting new work.
Suppliers are pushing to finish production and complete cargo handovers before September 25. Anything sailing mid to late September needs space secured now, and the production cutoff behind it sits earlier. Those are two different clocks, and for a packaging order the production one binds first.
Waiting until October to evaluate year end packaging means entering a backlog recovery period rather than a production window.
What This Means for Your Packaging
Ordering early is not about receiving product early. It protects the parts of the process you cannot buy back later:
- Production capacity, finite and being allocated now for the weeks around the China holiday window
- Delivery timelines, less predictable as carriers pull capacity and reshuffle schedules
- Lower cost freight options, which come off the table as rate increases stack
- Expedited shipping costs, the only remaining lever once standard windows close
- Inventory continuity, because packaging can hold up a finished product that is otherwise ready to sell
An order placed now moves on standard timelines at standard cost. The same order in November competes for compressed capacity at peak pricing, and the difference does not show up in the quote. It shows up in the freight invoice and the ship date.
How DIZPOT Is Supporting Customers
DIZPOT maintains consistent shipping lanes with its vendors, with containers departing approximately every five to seven days. That cadence lets us consolidate orders, keep product moving on a dependable schedule, and access freight options not available to buyers shipping one off.
Supported by our logistics division DIZLOGIC, our team monitors these conditions continuously and builds packaging timelines against real freight and production conditions rather than assumptions.
If you have not mapped your year end packaging requirements yet, this is the week. Our team can walk through what you have coming, current lead times, and where the pressure points sit for your timeline.
DIZPOT helps customers navigate supply chain challenges before they become business problems.